Recurrence quantification analysis of global stock markets

نویسندگان

  • João A. Bastos
  • Jorge Caiado
چکیده

This study investigates the presence of deterministic dependencies in international stock markets using recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). The results are based on a large set of free float-adjustedmarket capitalization stock indices, covering a period of 15 years. The statistical tests suggest that the dynamics of stock prices in emerging markets is characterized by higher values of RQA measures when compared to their developed counterparts. The behavior of stockmarkets during critical financial events, such as the burst of the technology bubble, the Asian currency crisis, and the recent subprime mortgage crisis, is analyzed by performing RQA in sliding windows. It is shown that during these events stockmarkets exhibit a distinctive behavior that is characterized by temporary decreases in the fraction of recurrence points contained in diagonal and vertical structures. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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تاریخ انتشار 2010